The dumpster fire of COVID predictions has shown exactly why it’s important to sustain and nurture skeptics, lest we blunder into scientific monoculture and groupthink. And yet the explosion of “cancel culture” intolerance of any opinion that doesn’t fit a shrinking “3 x 5 card” of right-think risks destroying the very tolerance and science that sustains our civilization.
Since World War II, America has suffered two respiratory pandemics comparable to COVID-19: the 1958 “Asian flu,” then the 1969 “Hong Kong flu.” In neither case did we shut down the economy—people were simply more careful. Not all that careful, of course—Jimi Hendrix was playing at Woodstock in the middle of the 1969 pandemic, and social distancing wasn’t really a thing in the “Summer of Love.”
And yet COVID-19 was very different thanks to a single “buggy mess” of a computer prediction from one Neil Ferguson, a British epidemiologist given to hysterical overestimates of deaths, from mad cow to bird flu to H1N1.
For COVID-19, Ferguson predicted 3 million deaths in America unless we basically shut down the economy. Panicked policymakers took his prediction as gospel, dressed as it was in the cloak of science.
Now, long after governments plunged half the world into a Great Depression, those panicked revisions are being quietly revised down by an order of magnitude, now suggesting a final tally comparable to 1958 and 1969. (See link for article)
Peter St. Onge is the senior economist at the Montreal Economic Institute. He blogs at Profits of Chaos.
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**Comment**
Great read and great reminder. You know you are in the wrong place when your mind is closed off to new discoveries. This is quite evident in the Lyme world – where ‘authorities’ are quite happy to name-call those they disagree with ‘quacks’ and ‘conspiracy theorists’ and refuse to keep an open mind on science that is continuously evolving.
Key quotes:
It’s comforting to know that our problems are old ones, and also encouraging that our solution is both time-tested and simple: transparency and tolerance.
This implies there is no such thing as “settled science”—the phrase itself is contrary to the scientific method.
The history of Lyme, and now COVID-19 is a history riddled with conflicts of interest, closed-door meetings, and rigged science designed to yield a pre-determined outcome.
Another reminder: the same people behind the Lyme fiasco are also behind the COVID fiasco.Do not trust these people. Do your own reading, talk to those with experience, and trust the body’s innate ability to heal itself.
Elena Delle Donne, the Washington Mystics superstar and reigning WNBA MVP, told ESPN on Monday that her request to opt out of the 2020 season was denied by a panel of physicians, assembled by the WNBA and the players association.
Delle Donne’s request was for medical reasons because she’s had chronic Lyme disease since 2008, and her personal physician told her she was at a high risk for contracting COVID-19 and having related complications, ESPN reported. (See link for article)
Another great example of how those with tick-borne illness have been discriminated against for decades and have been told their illness is “all in their head.”
The study, which was obviously flawed on its face, turned out to be produced by a shell company, with unverified data gathered by non-scientists.
But when that study flopped, another study was immediately latched onto. It’s called the RECOVERY trials and was done in the UK. Supposedly, this study was the counter to the fake study published by Lancet.
It was the proof that “well yeah, that other study was bad, but this one got the same results.”
Well, not so much.
Edmund Fordham wrote a piece on what is an emerging controversy, in which it appears the lead of the RECOVERY trial took hydroxychloroquine for another drug, resulting in a high death rate.
Internet sleuths also got to work on the very heavy doses of the drug that were given – 2400 mg in the first 24 hours, a ‘dose fit for a gorilla’ as one critic had it. Quizzed about this, Landray defended the dosage, twice, as being usual for other diseases such as amoebic dysentery. Say again? Hydroxychloroquine is used for lupus and arthritis as well as malaria, but dysentery? As a footnote in medical history, the older chloroquine was used half a century ago in attempts to control dysentery, but Professor Christian Perronne, head of infectious diseases at Garches, France, told France Soir that it had been abandoned before 1976. Was Landray confusing hydroxychloroquine with the hydroxyquinolines, which are used for dysentery?
1,132 patients died in the RECOVERY trial, with general death rates nearly 10% higher than other country’s hospitals (the trial was randomized through Britain’s NHS). Whether giving people 3x the usual dosage of most other studies played a part is now a very real question.
Landray defended himself twice, but is now claiming he’s being misquoted. The French newspaper who quoted him denies that.
Landray explained there was no approved dosing for Covid because it was a new disease. Well, yes, but the toxic dose won’t change depending on the illness. Asked whether the UK had a maximum dose for hydroxychloroquine, Landray wasn’t sure, but opined it would be much larger, say six to ten times the trial’s dose. That makes 24 whole grams. NICE says about 490 mg per day for a 75kg adult. In France 1800 mg in a day mandates hospitalization as a poisoning. Twenty-four grams at one go would be almost certainly lethal, possibly even to a gorilla. So Landray has had notice of some hard questions on dose, which will no doubt be explained in the full report, not yet released.
In the end, though, this study is just another in a long list which completely miss the mark and it’s good that it was canceled. The effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine to fight coronavirus has always been in the early stages because of how the virus works. Doing trials on extremely sick, hospitalized patients is scientifically counterproductive because the viral infection itself is no longer the issue at that point.
As the now-debunked Lancet published study counted in their data, giving hydroxychloroquine without adjacent drugs (anti-biotic and zinc) is pointless and using that data in “studies” to claim the drug doesn’t work at all is incredibly misleading. Why is that even being studied and included in any determination of its effectiveness?
Countries and doctors that report success with hydroxychloroquine already know not to give it to late-stage patients and that it’s ineffective when used alone. What they also know is that it does appear to have benefits for early-stage, non-hospitalized subjects when prescribed properly in conjunction with other drugs. Why is it so difficult for some to separate those things and focus on helping people?
“Nothing should happen without ‘big science’. All the little physician/scientist people peddling their wares (HCQ/ vitamins, etc) should pack up and go home.”
But Fauci has a vested interest in all this – despite him not admitting it. His relationship with Gilead Sciences (manufacturer of Remdesivir) goes back decades and of course has patents on numerous things – particularly things revolving around vaccines. It’s also amusing that he states:
“Scientifically robust and ethically sound clinical research remains the quickest and most efficient pathway to effective treatment and prevention strategies….”
Yet, this man is behind the Lyme fiasco as well. He insists upon using tests made in house so they can then go on to create lucrative treatments and vaccines. How anyone still believes him is truly a head-scratcher.
According to Kory, the FLCCCs MATH+ protocol has been delivered to the White House on four occasions, yet no interest has been shown. Worse, he says they continue to be stonewalled by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and the National Institute for Health. Why?
Isn’t saving lives, right now, and by any means possible, more important than pushing for a vaccine? If the MATH+ protocol works with near-100% effectiveness, a vaccine may not even be necessary.The MATH+ protocol gets its name from:
Rep. Christopher Smith (R-Hamilton) says there are credible assertions that government researchers at Ft. Detrick and Plum Island turned ticks into bioweapons.
Now the 20-term New Jersey Republican wants the government to investigate whether ticks were ever weaponized with Lyme disease or other hazardous pathogens.
Smith’s congressional colleagues agree with him.
Last night, the House approved an amendment sponsored by Smith that requires the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to determine if ticks were ever weaponized with Lyme disease or other hazardous pathogens.
This is Smith’s second bid to get his proposed law passed. In 2019, he sponsored a similar measure giving the job to the U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General. (See link for article)
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**Comment**
After a year of silence and waiting we find out the inspector general at the Pentagon didn’t have the bandwidth to launch an investigation. (Translation – I don’t have any balls and I’m passing the football to someone else)
Now it heads to the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
Want to place bets on us having to wait another yearor more to find out the GAO also doesn’t have bandwidth to launch an investigation?
The costs of the government responses to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic have been severe. New evidence suggests they could be even worse than we imagined.
An ABC affiliate in California reports that doctors at John Muir Medical Center tell them they have seen more deaths by suicide than COVID-19 during the quarantine.
“The numbers are unprecedented,” said Dr. Michael deBoisblanc, referring to the spike in suicides.
“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” deBoisblanc added. “I mean we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” (See link for article)
Mental health before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal probability sample survey of the UK population
After a month of lockdown in the U.K., the prevalence of mental distress jumped from 18.9% to 27.3% — mostly affecting women, young people, and those with preschool age children.
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**Comment**
This was written at the end of May and the lockdown & mask-wearing continues…..which means suicide attempts are probably far worse – and continuing.
It is unfortunate that the ‘Eye or Mordor’ continues to rivet on a virus that will ‘run its course’ despite anything we do, when there are plenty of other medical needs that are being completely ignored – including mental health.
…a new report by The Well Being Trust released last month found that 75,000 additional people could die from what they called “deaths of despair,” (which include suicide and substance use) because of Covid-19.
The article has some great advice and things to look for – as well as ways to get help.
Ellen Townsend, a professor of psychology at the University of Nottingham and an expert in self-harm and suicide prevention, warned there could be “a tsunami of mental health issues” on the horizon. “I’m worried that those who are already vulnerable will be struggling even more. I’m worried there are certain groups of young people who have been fine but are now struggling.
Lastly, a campaign known as REACH, is the core part of a $53 million, two-year effort announced by President Donald Trump to reduce suicide, particularly among veterans: https://www.armytimes.com/veterans/2020/07/07/us-government-launches-campaign-to-reduce-high-suicide-rates/ (I flat-out disagree with Adams’ statement that mask wearing is going to decrease suicides. That is pure conjecture and there’s much to show masks are harmful to the healthy population. The last thing a depressed or anxious person needs is less oxygen!)
