Experts and models – can they show us their math?
Awe of coronavirus models resembles run-up to 2008 financial collapse when Wall Street swooned over math PhDs
“Indeed, the current ‘safer at home,’ ‘shut down the economy’ and ‘flatten the curve’ strategies are based on the assumption that stopping the movement of people and developing a proven vaccine will solve coronavirus infections.
And the only consistent rejoinder to people who question the need for all this hugely damaging action is: ‘Oh, then you want more people to die?’
A false dichotomy on steroids.
In fact, it appears the debate is controlled – and important decisions are made, unchallenged – by people who have government jobs, well-funded academic sinecures or secure pensions. I suppose that makes sense. After all, what would the lower orders know about such things? They’ve not done the modeling.”
I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.” Dr. Anthony Fauci
“This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.” Dr. Fauci https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
“AS FOR OUR COMMON DEFENSE, WE REJECT AS FALSE THE CHOICE BETWEEN OUR SAFETY AND OUR IDEALS.” WENDY K. MARINER, GEORGE J. ANNAS & WENDY E. PARMET (ALL LAW PROFESSORS) INAUGURATION ADDRESS OF PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA, JANUARY 20, 2009. MARINER